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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Sep 28 2021 7:02 am

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Day 2

Categorical Day 1 Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 280559
SPC AC 280557

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z


A few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing locally
damaging gusts and hail are possible this afternoon and evening
across parts of the Middle Atlantic vicinity, and across portions of
the southern Plains.

A weak upper low centered over the Four Corners states will
gradually become absorbed within broader cyclonic flow, as a trough
shifts across the western U.S. through the period.  On the
southeastern fringe of the diminishing low, a weak trough is
forecast to shift into southern Plains during the afternoon and
early evening.

In the East, gradual amplification of a slow-moving trough is
anticipated.  This will occur as a lead short-wave feature shifts
out of the central Appalachians and across the Mid-Atlantic region
early in the period, followed by a mid- and upper-level jet streak
that will dig southward out of Canada across the Great Lakes region
through the end of the period.

At the surface, a cold front will shift across the Intermountain
West, while a lee trough persists across the High Plains.  In the
East, a cold front is forecast to shift off the New England Coast
during the day, while sagging southward across the Mid-Atlantic
region during the afternoon and evening.

...Mid-Atlantic Region...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms should be spreading across the
central Appalachians vicinity at the start of the period, ahead of a
weak/fast-moving mid-level short-wave trough.  This convection --
and associated cloud cover -- casts some uncertainty over northern
portions of the risk area with respect to subsequent
heating/destabilization.  In general however, areas from northern
Virginia eastward across the Delmarva Peninsula to southern New
Jersey should experience ample pre-frontal heating such that --
given rather steep mid-level lapse rates being advected eastward and
ample low-level moisture -- a zone of 1000 to 2000 J/kg CAPE is
expected by late afternoon.

As the cold front sags southward to the Mason-Dixon line during the
afternoon, and a weak lee trough evolves over northern/western
Virginia, isolated thunderstorm development is expected.  Coverage
of convection should remain somewhat limited, in the wake of
stronger ascent associated with the earlier passage of short-wave
troughing.  Any storms which do develop, however, will be capable of
producing locally damaging wind gusts -- aided by moderate
west-northwesterly flow through the lower and middle troposphere. 
Steep mid-level lapse rates may also support hail potential with a
few stronger updrafts.  Risk should continue into the early evening
as the front sags southward, diminishing thereafter as much of the
convection shifts offshore in tandem with the slow eastward drift of
the main upper trough.

...Portions of Texas and adjacent southwestern Oklahoma...
Daytime heating of a modestly moist (mainly low 60s dewpoints)
boundary layer ahead of an evolving dryline, combined with
relatively steep mid-level lapse rates, will support development of
1000 to 2000 J/kg CAPE.  As weak short-wave troughing shifts
eastward out of New Mexico, scattered afternoon storm development is
expected -- initially across the Pecos Valley/Big Bend region, and
then expanding northward to southwestern Oklahoma.

While mid-level west-southwesterlies averaging 20 to 25 kt should
limit storm organization/severe potential in most areas, a rather
deep mixed layer will offer potential for sub-cloud
evaporation/downdraft enhancement.  This suggests potential for
locally damaging gusts with a few of the stronger storms, especially
where some clustering/cold-pool organization can occur.  While a
more concentrated corridor or two of wind risk may evolve, at this
time the locations of any such areas remain difficult to discern,
amidst broad ascent.  Therefore, will maintain only 5%/MRGL risk in
this forecast update.

..Goss.. 09/28/2021


Day 3

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: and Rick Curly:

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