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Information from NOAA Storm Prediction Center at this website

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SPC Day 4-8 Outlook

Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: Oct 19 2021 12:03 pm


Day 1

D4Friday Oct 22 2021 - Saturday Oct 23 2021 D7Monday Oct 25 2021 - Tuesday Oct 26 2021
D5Saturday Oct 23 2021 - Sunday Oct 24 2021 D8Tuesday Oct 26 2021 - Wednesday Oct 27 2021
D6Sunday Oct 24 2021 - Monday Oct 25 2021 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.

POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
000 ACUS48 KWNS 190759 SWOD48 SPC AC 190758 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Model consensus is that a low-amplitude omega blocking pattern with low severe potential will evolve during the first half of the day 4-8 period. There is agreement among some model solutions including the ECMWF that a substantial upper trough will move into the Plains by day 7 or 8, preceded by sufficient moisture return for a severe weather threat. However, predictability is too low at this time to introduce a categorical risk area. ..Dial.. 10/19/2021

Day 2

Day 3

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