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Information from NOAA Storm Prediction Center at this website

More SPC info on this site: 

SPC Day 3 Outlook

Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: Oct 19 2021 11:39 am


Categorical Probabilistic <= Move cursor over selections to display the selected graphic below.

Day 1


Categorical Day 2 Outlook

000
ACUS03 KWNS 190712
SWODY3
SPC AC 190711

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE OHIO VALLEY AS WELL AS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms with gusty winds will be possible from eastern
Ohio into western Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia Thursday.
A few storms capable of marginally severe hail might occur late
Thursday night over southern Oklahoma.

...Eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania...

Limited low-level moisture return will occur Thursday with a narrow
corridor of mid 50s dewpoints from OH into western PA. Forcing for
ascent accompanying a progressive shortwave trough and its attendant
cold front will move through the OH Valley during the day.
Low-topped convection is expected to develop within narrow corridor
of  weak instability along and just ahead of the front. Activity
will be embedded within strong unidirectional southwesterly winds.
Potential will exist for higher momentum air to be transported to
the surface within some of the rain cores during the afternoon.
Overall threat should remain limited by the anticipated marginal
thermodynamic environment.

...Southern Oklahoma...

A cold front is expected to stall in vicinity of the OK/TX border.
Partially modified Gulf air will return northward beneath 7 C/km
mid-level lapse rates, resulting in moderate instability with up to
1500 J/kg MUCAPE from northwest TX into southern OK. Modest
isentropic ascent north of this boundary may contribute to the
development of a few thunderstorms very late in the period, and some
of these updrafts might become capable of producing a few instances
of hail.

..Dial.. 10/19/2021

$$
        

Day 2

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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